U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

The prediction market is asking whether the U.S. government will conduct an anti-cartel operation outside of the United States by July 31. The current price indicates a 70% probability that such an operation will occur. This assessment is informed by known facts about the ongoing efforts to combat cartel activity, including the U.S. government's stated commitment to disrupting and dismantling these organizations. A change in the price upwards would likely be driven by new information or developments that suggest increased likelihood of a U.S.-led anti-cartel operation outside of the country. Conversely, a decrease in the price would be consistent with news or circumstances that reduce the probability of such an operation taking place.