Weather & Climate prediction markets
Temperatures, storms, rainfall and other weather outcomes.
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Live events
209
24h volume
$1.5M
Biggest 24h move-39 pts
18%
Largest order flow (3d)$12K
100% YES
3 outcomes · $8K 24hP
What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
Over 2.572%
5 outcomes · $7K 24hP
Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?
1.00 to 2.99 ft51%
3 outcomes · $4K 24hP
Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft84%
Most traded events
24h volumeBlue: Kalshi (volume in $1 contracts). Purple: Polymarket. Click a bar to open the event.
Biggest movers
all 24h swings →Markets with $2K+ traded, excluding new listings and contracts about to settle.
All weather & climate events
top 60 by volume| Event | Favorite / 50-50 line | Odds | 24h move | 24h vol | Settles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1)? K 35 outcomes |
≈ Indianapolis | 62% | -39 | $44K | 2026-11-02 |
| This Oct 2026 is the hottest October ever? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 84% | +3 | $17K | 2026-11-16 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 2% | — | $15K | 2027-01-01 |
| When will Aspen Mountain open for the 26/27 winter season? K 5 outcomes |
≈ Before Nov 22, 2026 | 36% | — | $13K | 2026-11-21 |
| Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? P 17 outcomes |
≈ ↑7k | 38% | +12 | $9K | 2027-01-01 |
| What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño? P 3 outcomes |
Over 2.5 | 72% | -3 | $8K | 2027-04-01 |
| Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30? P 5 outcomes |
1.00 to 2.99 ft | 51% | +7 | $7K | 2026-12-02 |
| Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026? P 3 outcomes |
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft | 84% | — | $4K | 2027-01-02 |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 5% | — | $4K | 2027-03-01 |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 76% | +2 | $4K | 2027-01-01 |
| Where will it rain on Nov 1, 2026? K 35 outcomes |
≈ Springfield | 48% | — | $3K | 2026-11-02 |
| Precipitation in Seattle in October? P 3 outcomes |
<1.75" | 99% | — | $3K | 2027-01-08 |
| Rain in Phoenix in Nov 2026? K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 2 inches | 36% | +12 | $3K | 2026-12-01 |
| What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? K 5 outcomes |
2.5°C to 2.9°C | 64% | +5 | $3K | 2027-08-15 |
| How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026? K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 1 | 19% | +8 | $2K | 2026-12-02 |
| When will the Danube River return to normal levels? P 2 outcomes |
Does not return by November 1, 2026 | 99% | — | $2K | 2026-11-02 |
| Rain in New York City on Nov 1, 2026? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 2% | — | $2K | 2026-11-02 |
| Rain in Los Angeles in Nov 2026? K 7 outcomes |
Above 1 inch | 54% | -20 | $2K | 2026-12-01 |
| Rain in San Antonio in Nov 2026? K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 2 inches | 50% | — | $2K | 2026-12-01 |
| First snow of the 2026 season P 19 outcomes |
≈ Philadelphia, PA by November 30 | 50% | — | $2K | 2026-12-04 |
| AI data center in space by...? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 24% | — | $1K | 2028-01-01 |
| When will the Rhine River return to normal levels? P 2 outcomes |
No return before November 1, 2026 | 100% | — | $934 | 2026-11-01 |
| Lake Mead end-of-month water elevation in Dec 2026? K 8 outcomes |
≈ Above 1037 Ft | 40% | — | $912 | 2027-01-07 |
| Snow in New York City in Dec 2026? K 6 outcomes |
Above 2 inches | 42% | — | $907 | 2027-01-01 |
| Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 12% | — | $903 | 2028-12-31 |
| Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 2% | — | $647 | 2027-01-01 |
| When will Park City Mountain open for the 26/27 winter season? K 5 outcomes |
≈ Before Dec 6, 2026 | 96% | — | $580 | 2026-11-22 |
| When will Big Sky open for the 26/27 winter season? K 5 outcomes |
≈ Before Nov 22, 2026 | 8% | — | $529 | 2026-11-21 |
| What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030? K 10 outcomes |
Oil | 60% | — | $526 | 2032-12-30 |
| How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? P 3 outcomes |
1-3 | 96% | — | $525 | 2026-12-01 |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 6% | — | $425 | 2027-01-01 |
| Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30? P 4 outcomes |
≈ 6.00 ft or more | 33% | — | $403 | 2026-12-02 |
| Oct 2026 temperature increase? K 6 outcomes |
1.30001 or above | 94% | — | $385 | 2026-11-16 |
| Precipitation in Hong Kong in October? P 3 outcomes |
70-120mm | 97% | — | $370 | 2027-01-08 |
| Rain in St. Louis in Nov 2026? K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 3 inches | 56% | — | $347 | 2026-12-01 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 2% | — | $318 | 2027-01-01 |
| How many Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? K 4 outcomes |
≈ Above 10 | 36% | — | $311 | 2026-12-01 |
| 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 5% | — | $301 | 2027-03-01 |
| Melbourne's wettest month of 2026? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 94% | — | $300 | 2027-01-09 |
| Major volcano eruption in 2026? K 3 outcomes |
≈ At least 1 | 41% | — | $298 | 2027-06-29 |
| How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 30% | — | $291 | 2026-12-01 |
| Precipitation in Seoul in October? P 4 outcomes |
70-85mm | 96% | — | $283 | 2027-01-08 |
| Snow in Chicago in Dec 2026? K 6 outcomes |
≈ Above 4 inches | 55% | — | $268 | 2027-01-01 |
| Precipitation in London in October? P 4 outcomes |
70-85mm | 92% | — | $263 | 2027-01-08 |
| Rain in Pittsburgh in Nov 2026? K 2 outcomes |
≈ Above 7 inches | 6% | — | $240 | 2026-12-01 |
| Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026? K 8 outcomes |
≈ Above 10 | 36% | — | $232 | 2026-12-02 |
| Snow in Boston in Dec 2026? K 6 outcomes |
≈ Above 2 inches | 52% | — | $221 | 2027-01-01 |
| Number of tornadoes in Nov 2026? K 11 outcomes |
≈ Above 25 | 81% | — | $197 | 2026-12-01 |
| How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026? P 2 outcomes |
8 | 64% | — | $182 | 2027-07-01 |
| Rain in Minneapolis in Nov 2026? K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 2 inches | 62% | — | $153 | 2026-12-01 |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? P 1 outcome |
Yes | 26% | — | $152 | 2027-03-01 |
| Rain in West Palm Beach in Nov 2026? K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 1 inch | 92% | — | $145 | 2026-12-01 |
| India meets its 2030 climate goals? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 64% | — | $144 | 2031-12-31 |
| 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? K 1 outcome |
Yes | 32% | — | $134 | 2030-01-01 |
| Snow in Denver in Dec 2026? K 6 outcomes |
≈ Above 6 inches | 54% | — | $131 | 2027-01-01 |
| Rain in Chicago in Nov 2026? K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 3 inches | 37% | — | $121 | 2026-12-01 |
| Rain in Oklahoma City in Nov 2026? K 7 outcomes |
≈ Above 2 inches | 44% | — | $119 | 2026-12-01 |
| Snow in Milwaukee in Dec 2026? K 6 outcomes |
≈ Above 8 inches | 50% | — | $111 | 2027-01-01 |
| What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year? K 10 outcomes |
≈ Moke | 0% | — | $90 | 2026-12-01 |
| Snow in Washington DC in Dec 2026? K 6 outcomes |
≈ Above 2 inches | 26% | — | $88 | 2027-01-01 |
Settling in the next two weeks
- Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026?· ≈ Milwaukee 59%
- Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1)?· ≈ Indianapolis 62%
- Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 31, 2026?· 58° or below 70%
- Rain in Los Angeles in Oct 2026?· ≈ Above 1 inch 16%
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 31, 2026?· 71° or above 74%
- Rain in Seattle in Oct 2026?· Above 1 inch 100%
- Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 31, 2026?· 85° to 86° 70%
- Highest temperature in Denver on Oct 31, 2026?· 62° to 63° 40%
Large orders (3 days)
Kalshi- Will Aspen Mountain open before Dec 13, 2026?
YES $12K · NO $0 · 3 orders
- Will it rain in New York City between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026?
YES $0 · NO $4K · 1 orders
- Will Aspen Mountain open before Dec 6, 2026?
YES $4K · NO $0 · 2 orders
- Will Aspen Mountain open before Nov 15, 2026?
YES $0 · NO $4K · 2 orders
- Will it rain in Washington DC between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026?
YES $0 · NO $3K · 2 orders
- Will it rain in Phoenix between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026?
YES $2K · NO $0 · 2 orders
- Will it rain in Boston between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026?
YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders
- Will it rain in Newark between Oct 31 and Nov 1, 2026?
YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. How to read prediction markets.