What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 32%, implying a 32% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2030. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 01, 2030 (1157d) All outcomes: 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?

chance of YES32% -3.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

29–45%

30d -13 pts · 7d +6 pts

24h volume

134

$1 contracts

Open interest

13.3K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.