What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?

Before 2028

Closes Dec 31, 2028 (905d) 24h volume 110 Open interest 6.6K Event Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 17 days · High 18% · Low 5% · 7d -37.5pp

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Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.