P PolymarketWeather & Climate

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Settles Mar 01, 2027 (120d) All outcomes: Natural Disaster in 2026?

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Preview
chance of YES26% +3.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
6–36%
30d +188 pts · 7d +123 pts
24h volume
$152
USDC traded
Open interest
$24.0K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.