K KalshiWeather & Climate

Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

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Theme
Preview
chance of YES2% -2.0pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
3–8%
30d -25 pts · 7d -25 pts
24h volume
647
$1 contracts
Open interest
244.0K
contracts outstanding
Bid / ask
6¢ / 7¢
spread 1.0¢

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Order book

top 5
BidSizeAskSize
6.0¢ 134 7.0¢ 960
5.0¢ 2,489 8.0¢ 1,912
4.0¢ 3,631 9.0¢ 1,359
3.0¢ 11,759 10.0¢ 1,500
2.0¢ 8,548 11.0¢ 351

Mid 6.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Recent large orders

≥ $1K · 14 days
WhenSidePriceContractsSize
NO98¢ 8,235$8K
NO97¢ 1,259$1K
NO96¢ 4,483$4K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.