Rain in Phoenix in Nov 2026?
50/50 line36%Above 2 inches
Line nearest 50/50
36%
Market median
1.69inch
Biggest 24h move+14 pts
80%
24h volume
$3K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAbove 1 inch
80%
+14
Above 2 inches
36%
-2
Above 3 inches
18%
Above 4 inches
6%
-2
Above 6 inches
2%
-4
What the market expects
median 1.69inchChance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above 5 inchesYES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Above 7 inchesYES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5 inches | NO | 94¢ | $2K | |
| Above 7 inches | NO | 93¢ | $2K |
All outcomes
7| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 80% | +14.0 | $2K | $1K |
| Above 2 inches | 36% | -1.5 | $325 | $367 |
| Above 3 inches | 18% | +0.5 | $19 | $3K |
| Above 4 inches | 6% | -2.5 | $184 | $3K |
| Above 6 inches | 2% | -4.5 | $200 | $692 |
| Above 5 inches | 2% | -0.5 | $0 | $113 |
| Above 7 inches | 2% | +0.5 | $0 | $2K |