What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 36%, implying a 36% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Dec 01, 2026 (30d) All outcomes: Rain in Phoenix in Nov 2026?

chance of YES36% -1.0pp in 24h

Price range (4d)

21–38%

24h volume

325

$1 contracts

Open interest

367

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

hourly, 4d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.