What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 84%, implying a 84% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Nov 16, 2026 (15d) All outcomes: This Oct 2026 is the hottest October ever?

chance of YES84% +1.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

30–89%

30d +62 pts · 7d +2 pts

24h volume

16.9K

$1 contracts

Open interest

37.4K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$1K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 23, 7:14 AM ET	YES	85¢	1,710	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.