Biggest prediction-market swings, last 24 hours
Kalshi and Polymarket questions whose odds moved the most since yesterday: where each stood a day ago, where it trades now, and how much changed hands.
Movers
1 market · 24h| Market | 24h ago → now | Move | 24h vol | Settles |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oct 2026 be the hottest Oct ever?
K Weather & Climate |
82% → 84%
|
+2 | $17K | Nov 16, 2026 |
About this list
What counts as a swing. The change in a market's YES price since the same time yesterday, in percentage points. Only markets with real trading count: at least the volume you pick (default $5K) in the last 24 hours. A market whose best bid and best ask are more than 10 points apart is left out too, because the price halfway between them is not one anyone traded at.
Live questions only. Markets that have effectively resolved (priced under 8% or over 92%), contracts settling within 36 hours and brand-new listings are left out, so a result being recorded or a first trade doesn't read as a change of mind. Sports are excluded unless you pick the Sports category.
Ranking. "Biggest swings" weighs the size of the move by how much doubt remains, so a 30% → 60% swing outranks a 90% → 99% one. Sort by "Most points" for the raw move.
One line per event. Outcomes in the same event usually move together (every rung of a "Bitcoin above $X" ladder, every candidate in a race), so each event shows its biggest mover and a count of the others. Tick "Show every outcome" to list them all.