First snow of the 2026 season
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/no+ 5 more in the table below.
Odds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
19| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver, CO by November 30 | 97% | — | $20 | $13K |
| Salt Lake City, UT by November 30 | 96% | -1.1 | $20 | $13K |
| Pittsburgh, PA by November 30 | 84% | -3.0 | $93 | $13K |
| Minneapolis, MN by November 15 | 75% | -1.5 | $17 | $13K |
| Kansas City, MO by November 30 | 68% | -8.5 | $50 | $13K |
| Cincinnati, OH by November 30 | 57% | +20.0 | $75 | $13K |
| Indianapolis, IN by November 15 | 56% | +0.5 | $18 | $13K |
| Buffalo, NY by November 15 | 54% | -5.0 | $12 | $13K |
| Detroit, MI by November 30 | 54% | +2.5 | $50 | $13K |
| Pittsburgh, PA by November 15 | 52% | -3.0 | $138 | $13K |
| Indianapolis, IN by November 30 | 51% | -21.9 | $44 | $13K |
| Philadelphia, PA by November 30 | 50% | +3.0 | $20 | $13K |
| Salt Lake City, UT by November 15 | 48% | +1.0 | $10 | $13K |
| Chicago, IL by November 15 | 48% | +5.5 | $50 | $13K |
| Detroit, MI by November 15 | 44% | -2.0 | $9 | $13K |
| Kansas City, MO by November 15 | 26% | -11.5 | $44 | $13K |
| Salt Lake City, UT by October 31 | 12% | -1.5 | $34 | $13K |
| Buffalo, NY by October 31 | 6% | — | $662 | $13K |
| Minneapolis, MN by October 31 | 3% | -2.9 | $152 | $13K |
How it settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its window. Because the final climate report for a day is issued the following morning, each market carries a resolution date 3 days after its deadline as an outer limit for that publication lag, not a waiting period: October 31, 2026 (by November 3, 2026); November 15, 2026 (by November 18, 2026); November 30, 2026 (by December 3, 2026). Each market's resolution source is that city's NWS Daily Climate Report, linked in that market's details. Those pages show the latest report only; past daily reports for every city are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/.
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.