What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 30%, implying a 30% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

Hottest

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 1.9K Open interest 66.4K Event Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

30%

implied YES probability

-0.7pp 24h

Last 91 days · High 40% · Low 23% · 7d -6.6pp · 30d -20.8pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.