P PolymarketTech & AI

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

26 outcomesSettles Dec 31, 2026 (61d)

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Theme
Preview
Favorite54%Google
Favorite
54%
Google
Runner-up
34%
Anthropic
Biggest 24h move-5 pts
54%
Google
24h volume
$172K
$7.5M open interest

Current odds

one winner
Google 54% -5
Anthropic 34% +3
OpenAI 6%
Meta 1%
xAI 1%
Z.ai 0%
Amazon 0%

+ 12 more in the table below.

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

26
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Google 54% -5.0 $17K $287K
Anthropic 34% +3.0 $9K $287K
OpenAI 6% — $5K $287K
Meta 1% — $4K $287K
xAI 1% — $2K $287K
Alibaba 0% — $1K $287K
Moonshot 0% — $1K $287K
DeepSeek 0% — $3K $287K
Z.ai 0% — $29K $287K
ByteDance 0% — $36K $287K
Microsoft 0% — $21K $287K
Mistral 0% — $46K $287K
Meituan 0% — $0 $287K
Amazon 0% — $0 $287K
Baidu 0% — $5 $287K
Company A 0% — $0 $287K
Company B 0% — $0 $287K
Company C 0% — $0 $287K
Company D 0% — $0 $287K
Company E 0% — $0 $287K
Company F 0% — $0 $287K
Company G 0% — $0 $287K
Company H 0% — $0 $287K
Company I 0% — $0 $287K
Company K 0% — $0 $287K
Other 0% — $0 $287K

How it settles

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.