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Prediction market news · last 7 daysIn the weeks leading up to the US midterms, a small group of prediction markets traders took field trips to Maine and Los Angeles, then reconvened online to pore over polls and early voter data out of Brazil, Israel and Texas.
What may seem like contradictory numbers are, in fact, just two ways to capture a similar picture.
Polling data remained at issue after the recent Brazil, Serbia and Wisconsin elections markets were upset by supposed long shots.
If prediction markets are disallowed in Utah, its business owners will be reduced to gambling on weather’s vagaries.
CNBC examines unusual price spikes in election prediction markets and how low-volume contracts can be moved by relatively small trades.
Plus: Trump administration promised tariff relief in talks to secure U.S. Audi factory and Cleveland-Cliffs to retain Stelco amid jobs dispute with Canadian government.
Prediction markets have become a growing source of revenue for media companies just ahead of the midterm elections, but not everyone thinks the proliferation of gambling odds in political reporting is a good thing.
The prediction markets platform halted trading on Thursday after it reported one of its third party providers had been compromised.
Traders who lost money on the incident will be “made whole,” the prediction-markets platform said.
Polymarket said it will fully reimburse users after it temporarily halted trading on its international platform Thursday afternoon, saying it identified a “compromised” third-party provider.
Polymarket said it temporarily halted trading on its international platform Thursday afternoon after it identified a “compromised” third-party provider.
The outage comes just days before the platform is expected to experience heightened trading during the U.S. midterm elections.
The trades under investigation came in shortly before polls closed, betting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would do better than his opponent.
The funding round comes as Kalshi expands its partnerships with the NBA and S&P Dow Jones Indices while facing legal challenges over its sports contracts.
Add another regulator to the list of watchdogs monitoring risks in the fast-growing prediction market industry: the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Polymarket is investigating a string of well-timed and profitable trades on the Israeli election this week in the latest case to raise concerns about potential insider trading on prediction markets.
The prediction market platform one year ago was valued at $5 billion.
Australia’s corporate regulator has not received a single application from a prediction market provider to operate in the country, where such platforms would likely face gambling rather than financial regulations.
Event-contract revenue hit $173 million in Q3 as Robinhood expands beyond sports ahead of the midterms.
The crypto wallet’s new integration offers CFTC-regulated event contracts through Kalshi, as prediction markets face growing legal challenges in the US.
Kalshi Inc. Chief Executive Officer Tarek Mansour said that his prediction market company is looking at additional ways to protect customers who are losing money betting on the platform.
In a city where almost everyone is privy to some kind of inside information, betting on politics has jumped ahead of midterm elections
Emily Chang hits the streets of New York with Tarek Mansour, who along with Luana Lopes Lara created Kalshi, the biggest prediction market in the world. The co-founders face a host of new competitors, vocal opponents and a very public debate about what the platform really is and…
A Democratic House could increase scrutiny of prediction markets, the CFTC and the industry’s ties to the Trump family after the midterms.
If Polymarket launches a token, it probably won't be exactly the same as owning shares of the company.
FT analysis shows biggest winners on prediction platform are a mixture of long-shot bettors and high-frequency traders
The rapid growth of prediction markets is raising questions about sports wagering, younger traders, market manipulation, and regulation. Sean Patrick Maloney, CEO and President of the Coalition for Prediction Markets, argues federally regulated platforms should be treated as…
The federal agency had previously investigated whether Polymarket allowed U.S. users on to its offshore platform in 2024, but dropped the measures in July 2025.
Kalshi Inc., the leading prediction market operator in the US, said it’s adding restrictions for users who are 18 to 20 years old, including a $2,500 monthly deposit limit.
The US state filed a lawsuit against Kalshi last week, seeking to recover up to $60 million in profits related to event contracts on prediction markets.
Event contract exchanges see a two-in-three chance that Democrats take control of both the House and Senate.
Kalshi has tapped Canelo Álvarez to expand its Spanish-speaking user base—and parted with more than $10 million in equity in the process, according to a source.
Millennium Management is exploring ways to use prediction markets to inform its trading strategies, joining a growing roster of Wall Street firms dipping their toes into the space.
The prediction market has hired a former FBI official to make sure political insiders don't use the platform for profit from confidential election information.
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