K KalshiEconomy & Fed

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Settles Dec 09, 2026 (39d) All outcomes: Fed decision in Dec 2026? Fed Watch — futures-implied odds

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Preview
chance of YES30% +4.0pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
18–74%
30d +11 pts · 7d +30 pts
24h volume
80.1K
$1 contracts
Open interest
463.3K
contracts outstanding
Bid / ask
29¢ / 30¢
spread 1.0¢

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Order book

top 5
BidSizeAskSize
29.0¢ 1,000 30.0¢ 3,500
28.0¢ 1,033 31.0¢ 22
27.0¢ 7,496 32.0¢ 1,182
26.0¢ 6,106 33.0¢ 2,210
25.0¢ 367 34.0¢ 612

Mid 29.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Hike 25bps70%65.0K
Hike >25bps2%23.0K
Cut 25bps0%10.7K
Cut >25bps0%5.9K

Recent large orders

≥ $1K · 14 days
WhenSidePriceContractsSize
YES30¢ 10,000$3K
YES29¢ 3,830$1K
NO73¢ 2,126$2K
NO76¢ 32,378$25K
NO76¢ 5,000$4K
NO78¢ 2,525$2K
NO73¢ 4,275$3K
YES25¢ 4,845$1K
YES23¢ 14,600$3K
NO80¢ 2,626$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.

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