K KalshiEconomy & Fed

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?

Settles Dec 09, 2026 (39d) All outcomes: Fed decision in Dec 2026? Fed Watch — futures-implied odds

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Preview
chance of YES70% -1.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
22–79%
30d -1 pts · 7d -3 pts
24h volume
65.0K
$1 contracts
Open interest
328.5K
contracts outstanding
Bid / ask
69¢ / 70¢
spread 1.0¢

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Order book

top 5
BidSizeAskSize
69.0¢ 6,255 70.0¢ 6,076
68.0¢ 2,307 71.0¢ 11,042
67.0¢ 1,105 72.0¢ 1,013
66.0¢ 1,653 73.0¢ 278
65.0¢ 1,658 74.0¢ 1,551

Mid 69.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Fed maintains rate30%80.1K
Hike >25bps2%23.0K
Cut 25bps0%10.7K
Cut >25bps0%5.9K

Recent large orders

≥ $1K · 14 days
WhenSidePriceContractsSize
NO33¢ 22,074$7K
NO29¢ 27,524$8K
YES70¢ 3,931$3K
YES70¢ 2,021$1K
NO29¢ 5,516$2K
YES71¢ 20,918$15K
NO27¢ 16,622$4K
NO27¢ 16,900$5K
YES78¢ 4,434$3K
YES79¢ 1,300$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.

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