What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 09, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Dec 09, 2026 (39d) All outcomes: Fed decision in Dec 2026? Fed Watch — futures-implied odds

chance of YES2% +1.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

1–6%

30d +0 pts · 7d -60 pts

24h volume

23.0K

$1 contracts

Open interest

424.2K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

2¢ / 3¢

spread 1.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 2.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 8:50 PM ET	NO	98¢	20,000	$20K
Oct 29, 10:10 PM ET	NO	98¢	2,000	$2K
Oct 29, 7:35 PM ET	NO	98¢	2,500	$2K
Oct 29, 6:52 PM ET	NO	98¢	4,000	$4K
Oct 29, 10:50 AM ET	NO	98¢	5,000	$5K
Oct 29, 8:37 AM ET	NO	97¢	2,609	$3K
Oct 29, 6:53 AM ET	NO	97¢	10,000	$10K
Oct 28, 10:36 PM ET	NO	97¢	3,000	$3K
Oct 28, 9:25 PM ET	NO	97¢	10,000	$10K
Oct 28, 8:24 PM ET	NO	97¢	50,000	$48K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.