Fed decision in Dec 2026?
Favorite70%Hike 25bps
Favorite
70%
Runner-up
30%
Biggest 24h move+4 pts
30%
24h volume
$185K
Current odds
one winnerOdds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
Where the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Hike >25bpsYES $0 · NO $129K · 18 orders · biggest $48K
- Fed maintains rateYES $22K · NO $78K · 27 orders · biggest $25K
- Hike 25bpsYES $57K · NO $36K · 23 orders · biggest $15K
- Cut 25bpsYES $0 · NO $7K · 3 orders · biggest $3K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | YES | 30¢ | $3K | |
| Hike >25bps | NO | 98¢ | $20K | |
| Fed maintains rate | YES | 29¢ | $1K | |
| Hike 25bps | NO | 33¢ | $7K | |
| Fed maintains rate | NO | 73¢ | $2K | |
| Fed maintains rate | NO | 76¢ | $25K | |
| Fed maintains rate | NO | 76¢ | $4K | |
| Hike 25bps | NO | 29¢ | $8K | |
| Fed maintains rate | NO | 78¢ | $2K | |
| Fed maintains rate | NO | 73¢ | $3K |
All outcomes
5| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 70% | -1.5 | $65K | $329K |
| Fed maintains rate | 30% | +4.0 | $80K | $463K |
| Hike >25bps | 2% | +1.0 | $23K | $424K |
| Cut 25bps | 0% | — | $11K | $311K |
| Cut >25bps | 0% | — | $6K | $158K |
Same series
- Fed decision in Apr 2027?Fed maintains rate 54% · settles 2027-04-28
- Fed decision in Jan 2027?≈ Hike 25bps 26% · settles 2027-01-27
- Fed decision in Jun 2027?≈ Fed maintains rate 57% · settles 2027-06-09
- Fed decision in Jul 2027?Fed maintains rate 76% · settles 2027-07-28
- Fed decision in Oct 2027?Fed maintains rate 94% · settles 2027-10-27
- Fed decision in Dec 2027?≈ Hike 25bps 8% · settles 2027-12-08