What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 30%, implying a 30% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Mar 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 5.8 million barrels/day

Settles Mar 31, 2027 (163d) All outcomes: Texas crude oil production in 2026

chance of YES30% -8.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

33–66%

· 7d -6 pts

24h volume

7.4K

$1 contracts

Open interest

12.0K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$13K

22% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 18, 12:17 PM ET	NO	65¢	4,353	$3K
Oct 14, 12:08 PM ET	NO	61¢	5,000	$3K
Oct 14, 12:06 PM ET	NO	60¢	3,015	$2K
Oct 14, 9:29 AM ET	YES	39¢	2,676	$1K
Oct 12, 12:52 PM ET	YES	36¢	4,674	$2K
Oct 5, 9:57 PM ET	NO	64¢	3,238	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.