What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Mar 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 5.9 million barrels/day

Settles Mar 31, 2027 (162d) All outcomes: Texas crude oil production in 2026

chance of YES4%

Price range (120d)

3–12%

30d -73 pts · 7d +0 pts

24h volume

5.5K

$1 contracts

Open interest

8.6K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.