Fed rate cut by...?
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noOdds over time
dailyDaily closing odds for the leading outcomes.
All outcomes
13| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2027 Meeting | 57% | -2.5 | $0 | $88K |
| April 2027 Meeting | 50% | -7.5 | $0 | $88K |
| June 2027 Meeting | 36% | — | $0 | $88K |
| March 2027 Meeting | 11% | -8.0 | $3K | $88K |
| January 2027 Meeting | 10% | — | $21 | $88K |
| December 2026 Meeting | 1% | -1.8 | $5K | $88K |
| October 2026 Meeting | 0% | — | $0 | $88K |
| January Meeting | 0% | -0.8 | $0 | $88K |
| March Meeting | 0% | — | $0 | $88K |
| April Meeting | 0% | — | $0 | $88K |
| June Meeting | 0% | -0.7 | $0 | $88K |
| July Meeting | 0% | — | $0 | $88K |
| September 2026 Meeting | 0% | — | $0 | $88K |
How it settles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.