What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 29, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

P PolymarketEconomy & Fed

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

Settles Jan 29, 2028 (454d) All outcomes: Fed rate cut by...? Fed Watch

chance of YES0%

Price range (120d)

—

24h volume

—

USDC traded

Open interest

$87.7K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Related stocks

POWL

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

July 2027 Meeting57%—

April 2027 Meeting50%—

June 2027 Meeting36%—

March 2027 Meeting12%$3.1K

January 2027 Meeting10%$21

December 2026 Meeting1%$3.3K

October 2026 Meeting0%—

January Meeting0%—

How it settles

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.