What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 28%, implying a 28% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 17, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Finance

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?

December Meeting

Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $1.4K Open interest $465.1K Event Fed rate cut by...?

28%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 68% · Low 17% · 7d +21.7pp · 30d -1.8pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

Related stocks

POWL Powell Industries Inc

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.