What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 17, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

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Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?

March Meeting

Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume — Open interest $465.1K Event Fed rate cut by...?

implied YES probability

Price history

Not enough price history yet.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.