K KalshiEconomy & Fed

CPI YoY in November

13 outcomesSettles Dec 10, 2026 (40d) Fed Watch — inflation & jobs data

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line41%Above 3.9%
Line nearest 50/50
41%
Above 3.9%
Market median
3.855%
even odds of landing above or below
Biggest 24h move-2 pts
2%
Above 4.7%
24h volume
$11K
$217K open interest · $1 contracts

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
Above 3.1% 98%
Above 3.3% 98% -1
Above 3.5% 94%
Above 3.7% 78% +2
Above 3.8% 61% +2
Above 3.9% 41% -4
Above 4.0% 32%
Above 4.1% 26%
Above 4.3% 10%
Above 4.4% 8% +1
Above 4.5% 7% +1
Above 4.6% 2% -2
Above 4.7% 2% -2

What the market expects

median 3.855%

Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.

Odds over time

rungs nearest 50/50 · daily

Where the large orders went

7 days · ≥ $1K
  • Above 4.7%
    YES $0 · NO $9K · 3 orders · biggest $4K
  • Above 4.5%
    YES $0 · NO $6K · 2 orders · biggest $4K
  • Above 4.6%
    YES $0 · NO $3K · 2 orders · biggest $2K
  • Above 4.3%
    YES $0 · NO $1K · 1 orders · biggest $1K

Recent large orders

WhenOutcomeSidePriceSize
Above 4.7%NO 98¢$1K
Above 4.5%NO 91¢$1K
Above 4.7%NO 97¢$4K
Above 4.5%NO 94¢$4K
Above 4.6%NO 97¢$1K
Above 4.6%NO 92¢$2K
Above 4.7%NO 96¢$4K
Above 4.3%NO 81¢$1K

All outcomes

13
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Above 3.1% 98% +0.5 $124 $675
Above 3.3% 98% -1.0 $2 $4K
Above 3.5% 94% -0.5 $85 $6K
Above 3.7% 78% +1.5 $2 $6K
Above 3.8% 61% +2.0 $151 $54K
Above 3.9% 41% -4.0 $299 $37K
Above 4.0% 32% +0.5 $726 $32K
Above 4.1% 26% +0.5 $3 $37K
Above 4.3% 10% +0.5 $16 $10K
Above 4.4% 8% +1.0 $1K $7K
Above 4.5% 7% +1.0 $3K $10K
Above 4.6% 2% -1.5 $104 $7K
Above 4.7% 2% -1.5 $5K $6K

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