K KalshiEconomy & Fed

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in November 2026?

Settles Dec 10, 2026 (40d) All outcomes: CPI YoY in November Fed Watch — inflation & jobs data

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chance of YES50% +5.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
16–61%
30d +29 pts · 7d -11 pts
24h volume
299
$1 contracts
Open interest
36.5K
contracts outstanding
Bid / ask
43¢ / 45¢
spread 2.0¢

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Order book

top 5
BidSizeAskSize
43.0¢ 7 45.0¢ 58
42.0¢ 100 46.0¢ 87
32.0¢ 1 47.0¢ 53
31.0¢ 35 48.0¢ 14,890
30.0¢ 144 64.0¢ 250

Mid 44.0¢ · spread 2.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Above 3.1%98%124
Above 3.3%98%2
Above 3.5%94%85
Above 3.7%78%2
Above 3.8%61%151
Above 4.0%32%726
Above 4.1%26%3
Above 4.3%10%16

Recent large orders

≥ $1K · 14 days
WhenSidePriceContractsSize
YES49¢ 2,264$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.