K KalshiEconomy & Fed

CPI YoY in December

9 outcomesSettles Jan 13, 2027 (74d) Fed Watch — inflation & jobs data

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line52%Above 3.9%
Line nearest 50/50
52%
Above 3.9%
Market median
3.915%
even odds of landing above or below
Biggest 24h move-5 pts
86%
Above 3.5%
24h volume
$7K
$78K open interest · $1 contracts

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
Above 3.1% 95% -1
Above 3.4% 91%
Above 3.5% 86% -5
Above 3.6% 78% -8
Above 3.7% 71% +2
Above 3.9% 52% +3
Above 4.0% 42%
Above 4.8% 8%
Above 4.9% 4% -2

What the market expects

median 3.915%

Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.

Odds over time

rungs nearest 50/50 · daily

Where the large orders went

7 days · ≥ $1K
  • Above 4.8%
    YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
  • Above 3.6%
    YES $2K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $2K
  • Above 4.3%
    YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
  • In Dec 2026
    YES $1K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $1K
  • Above 4.5%
    YES $0 · NO $1K · 1 orders · biggest $1K

Recent large orders

WhenOutcomeSidePriceSize
Above 4.3%NO 78¢$2K
Above 4.8%NO 89¢$2K
Above 3.6%YES 77¢$2K
Above 4.5%NO 80¢$1K
In Dec 2026YES 73¢$1K

All outcomes

9
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Above 3.1% 95% -1.0 $9 $4K
Above 3.4% 91% — $111 $4K
Above 3.5% 86% -5.0 $1K $5K
Above 3.6% 78% -8.5 $380 $2K
Above 3.7% 71% +2.0 $10 $3K
Above 3.9% 52% +3.0 $255 $28K
Above 4.0% 42% +0.5 $10 $9K
Above 4.8% 8% +0.5 $720 $9K
Above 4.9% 4% -1.5 $4K $15K

Same series