P PolymarketEconomy & Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

13 outcomesSettles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) Fed Watch

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Theme
Preview
Favorite97%0 (0 bps)
Favorite
97%
0 (0 bps)
Runner-up
1%
1 (25 bps)
Biggest 24h move
—
odds steady over the last day
24h volume
$45K
$25.1M open interest

Current odds

one winner

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

13
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
0 (0 bps) 97% — $26K $1.9M
1 (25 bps) 1% — $2K $1.9M
2 (50 bps) 0% — $91 $1.9M
12+ (300+ bps) 0% — $14K $1.9M
4 (100 bps) 0% — $3K $1.9M
3 (75 bps) 0% — $228 $1.9M
11 (275 bps) 0% — $49 $1.9M
6 (150 bps) 0% — $35 $1.9M
10 (250 bps) 0% — $50 $1.9M
9 (225 bps) 0% — $45 $1.9M
7 (175 bps) 0% — $35 $1.9M
5 (125 bps) 0% — $44 $1.9M
8 (200 bps) 0% — $44 $1.9M

How it settles

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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