polymarket Business

Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

12+ (300+ bps)
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (151d) 24h volume $18.0K Open interest $1.7M Event How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 1% · Low 0% · 7d -30.0pp · 30d 0.0pp
1%0%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Other outcomes in this event

0 (0 bps)
88% YES
24h vol $36.9K
1 (25 bps)
6% YES
24h vol $14.8K
2 (50 bps)
3% YES
24h vol $12.8K
3 (75 bps)
1% YES
24h vol $22.4K
6 (150 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $38.0K
4 (100 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $27.2K
5 (125 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $32.8K
7 (175 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $17.4K

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently indicating a 0% probability of 12 or more Fed rate cuts happening in 2026. The current price reflects the lack of expectation for significant rate cuts in the coming year. Known facts informing the current price include the Federal Reserve's recent stance on monetary policy, which has been characterized by gradual interest rate hikes to combat inflation. Any changes that could impact the market's assessment of the likelihood of rate cuts would likely drive the price up or down. For example, a shift towards a more dovish Fed approach or unexpected economic downturns could increase the probability of rate cuts and push the price higher. Conversely, a strengthening economy or continued progress in inflation control could lead to a decrease in the market's expectation for rate cuts, causing the price to fall.
Generated Jul 04, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.