Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

The prediction market is currently pricing in a 10% probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate cut occurring in 2026. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the Fed's recent trend of gradual interest rate hikes and the ongoing global economic uncertainty. The current price does not reflect any specific expectations about the number of rate cuts, only that some reduction in rates may occur. A change in market sentiment regarding the likelihood or timing of a rate cut would likely impact the YES price, potentially driving it higher if investors become more optimistic about the possibility of a cut or lower if they become less confident. Conversely, any unexpected changes to the economic landscape or monetary policy could also influence the price, potentially pushing it down if the market becomes less convinced of a rate cut occurring in 2026.