polymarket Business

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

0 (0 bps)
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (151d) 24h volume $36.9K Open interest $1.7M Event How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
88%
implied YES probability
-0.9pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 89% · Low 56% · 7d +4.4pp · 30d +13.3pp
89%56%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Other outcomes in this event

1 (25 bps)
6% YES
24h vol $14.8K
2 (50 bps)
3% YES
24h vol $12.8K
3 (75 bps)
1% YES
24h vol $22.4K
6 (150 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $38.0K
4 (100 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $27.2K
12+ (300+ bps)
0% YES
24h vol $18.0K
5 (125 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $32.8K
7 (175 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $17.4K

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently indicating a high probability of no Fed rate cuts in 2026, with a YES price of 0.89. This suggests that market participants believe there will be minimal or no changes to the federal funds target rate next year. The current price is informed by known facts such as the Federal Reserve's recent stance on monetary policy and the overall state of the economy. A change in this price would likely require significant shifts in economic indicators, such as inflation rates or GDP growth, that could impact the Fed's decision-making process.
Generated Jul 30, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.