polymarket Business

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

3 (75 bps)
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (151d) 24h volume $22.4K Open interest $1.7M Event How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
1%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 6% · Low 1% · 7d -5.0pp · 30d -61.2pp
6%1%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Other outcomes in this event

0 (0 bps)
88% YES
24h vol $36.9K
1 (25 bps)
6% YES
24h vol $14.8K
2 (50 bps)
3% YES
24h vol $12.8K
6 (150 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $38.0K
4 (100 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $27.2K
12+ (300+ bps)
0% YES
24h vol $18.0K
5 (125 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $32.8K
7 (175 bps)
0% YES
24h vol $17.4K

Recent news mentioning this market

AI analysis

The prediction market for the number of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 is currently pricing in a 3% probability that three rate cuts will occur. This assessment is informed by known facts about the current economic environment and monetary policy expectations. The market is asking whether the Fed will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points each, including any emergency rate cuts made outside of scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The price would increase if there were signs of a strengthening economy or inflationary pressures, leading to a higher likelihood of rate hikes rather than cuts. Conversely, the price would decrease if economic indicators continued to suggest a slowdown or deflationary risks, increasing the probability of multiple rate cuts in 2026.
Generated Jun 30, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.