Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?
50/50 line74%Above 4.00%
Line nearest 50/50
74%
Market median
4.083%
Biggest 24h move-3 pts
74%
24h volume
$7K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noWhat the market expects
median 4.083%Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above 4.50%YES $0 · NO $123K · 3 orders · biggest $100K
- Above 4.00%YES $28K · NO $0 · 3 orders · biggest $22K
- Above 3.75%YES $11K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $6K
- Above 3.50%YES $8K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $8K
- Above 4.25%YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.50% | NO | 99¢ | $4K | |
| Above 4.50% | NO | 99¢ | $100K | |
| Above 4.00% | YES | 86¢ | $22K | |
| Above 3.50% | YES | 99¢ | $8K | |
| Above 4.25% | NO | 94¢ | $2K | |
| Above 3.75% | YES | 98¢ | $6K | |
| Above 4.00% | YES | 87¢ | $2K | |
| Above 4.00% | YES | 92¢ | $5K | |
| Above 3.75% | YES | 98¢ | $5K | |
| Above 4.50% | NO | 97¢ | $19K |
All outcomes
5| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.75% | 98% | -1.0 | $1K | $33K |
| Above 3.25% | 98% | — | $7 | $2K |
| Above 4.00% | 74% | -3.0 | $5K | $58K |
| Above 4.25% | 2% | — | $543 | $57K |
| Above 4.50% | 1% | +1.0 | $250 | $159K |
Same series
- Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?Yes 86% · settles 2027-12-08