P PolymarketEconomy & Fed

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

5 outcomesSettles Jan 27, 2027 (88d) Fed Watch

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Theme
Preview
Favorite65%Pause-Hike-Pause
Favorite
65%
Pause-Hike-Pause
Runner-up
15%
Pause-Pause-Pause
Biggest 24h move-6 pts
11%
Pause-Pause-Hike
24h volume
$14K
$74K open interest

Current odds

one winner

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

5
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Pause-Hike-Pause 65% +5.0 $5K $15K
Pause-Pause-Pause 15% -0.5 $3K $15K
Pause-Pause-Hike 11% -5.9 $2K $15K
Pause-Hike-Hike 9% -1.0 $3K $15K
Other 1% — $878 $15K

How it settles

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.