Diesel price on Election Day
50/50 line12%Above $6.40
Line nearest 50/50
12%
Market median
6.304
Biggest 24h move-4 pts
92%
24h volume
$34K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAbove $6.00
100%
Above $5.80
100%
+1
Above $6.20
92%
-4
Above $6.40
12%
-2
Above $6.60
2%
Above $7.00
0%
What the market expects
median 6.304Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above $5.40YES $15K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $15K
- Above $5.20YES $15K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $15K
- Above $5.80YES $12K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $12K
- Above $5.00YES $12K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $12K
- Above $5.60YES $11K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $11K
- November 3, 2026YES $10K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $10K
- Above $7.00YES $0 · NO $8K · 1 orders · biggest $8K
- Above $6.00YES $6K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $6K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6.20 | YES | 96¢ | $4K | |
| Above $7.00 | NO | 99¢ | $8K | |
| Above $6.00 | YES | 99¢ | $6K | |
| Above $5.80 | YES | 99¢ | $12K | |
| November 3, 2026 | YES | 99¢ | $10K | |
| Above $6.40 | NO | 74¢ | $2K | |
| Above $5.60 | YES | 99¢ | $11K | |
| Above $5.40 | YES | 99¢ | $15K | |
| Above $5.20 | YES | 99¢ | $15K | |
| Above $5.00 | YES | 99¢ | $12K |
All outcomes
6| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6.00 | 100% | — | $6K | $11K |
| Above $5.80 | 100% | +1.0 | $12K | $14K |
| Above $6.20 | 92% | -3.5 | $4K | $6K |
| Above $6.40 | 12% | -2.0 | $4K | $7K |
| Above $6.60 | 2% | -0.5 | $2 | $7K |
| Above $7.00 | 0% | — | $8K | $15K |