How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noWhat the market expects
median 4.684%Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyAll outcomes
14| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.9% | 86% | +0.5 | $492 | $54K |
| Below 4.8% | 74% | +1.5 | $851 | $54K |
| Below 4.7% | 56% | +20.0 | $938 | $54K |
| Below 4.6% | 20% | +2.0 | $712 | $54K |
| Below 4.5% | 12% | +1.6 | $2K | $54K |
| Below 4.3% | 10% | — | $80 | $54K |
| Below 4.4% | 10% | -0.5 | $33 | $54K |
| Below 3.9% | 5% | +1.7 | $71 | $54K |
| Below 4.2% | 5% | — | $59 | $54K |
| Below 4.1% | 4% | -0.9 | $60 | $54K |
| Below 3.6% | 3% | — | $164 | $54K |
| Below 1.0% | 2% | — | $26 | $54K |
| Below 3.7% | 2% | -0.7 | $159 | $54K |
| Below 3.5% | 1% | — | $132 | $54K |
How it settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.