P PolymarketEconomy & Fed

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

Settles Jan 01, 2027 (61d) All outcomes: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

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Preview
chance of YES5% +1.1pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
1–23%
30d +69 pts · 7d +31 pts
24h volume
$71
USDC traded
Open interest
$53.9K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

Open on Polymarket

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Below 4.9%85%$492
Below 4.8%74%$851
Below 4.7%58%$499
Below 4.6%20%$712
Below 4.5%11%$1.7K
Below 4.4%10%$33
Below 4.3%9%$80
Below 4.2%5%$59

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.

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