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Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
Below 3.9%
5%
implied YES probability
-0.7pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 34% ·
Low 4%
· 7d -36.1pp
· 30d -55.5pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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U.S. 10-yr Treasury yields cool below 5% as Fed rate decision approaches
Investing.com · 3h ago
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Copper Gains as Treasury Yields Ease Before Fed Rate Decision
Bloomberg Markets · 6h ago
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What Comes Next, Now that the 10-Year Treasury Yield Has Crossed 5%?
WSJ Markets · 11h ago
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20-year Treasury auction hits record yield as foreign demand plunges
Seeking Alpha · 14h ago
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Wall Street ends lower as oil spikes and the benchmark Treasury yield breaches 5%
Reuters · 16h ago
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