K KalshiEconomy & Fed

Core CPI YoY in December

6 outcomesSettles Jan 13, 2027 (74d) Fed Watch — inflation & jobs data

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line44%Above 2.9%
Line nearest 50/50
44%
Above 2.9%
Market median
2.868%
even odds of landing above or below
Biggest 24h move-4 pts
92%
Above 2.5%
24h volume
$4K
$28K open interest · $1 contracts

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
Above 2.4% 98% +2
Above 2.3% 98% +2
Above 2.5% 92% -4
Above 2.7% 79% +2
Above 2.9% 44% +4
Above 3.1% 16% +7

What the market expects

median 2.868%

Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.

Odds over time

rungs nearest 50/50 · daily

Where the large orders went

7 days · ≥ $1K
  • Above 2.5%
    YES $3K · NO $0 · 2 orders · biggest $2K
  • Dec 2026
    YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K

Recent large orders

WhenOutcomeSidePriceSize
Above 2.5%YES 91¢$1K
Above 2.5%YES 91¢$2K
Dec 2026NO 95¢$2K

All outcomes

6
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
Above 2.4% 98% +1.5 $1 $3K
Above 2.3% 98% +2.5 $1 $3K
Above 2.5% 92% -3.5 $4K $9K
Above 2.7% 79% +2.0 $2 $4K
Above 2.9% 44% +4.0 $54 $1K
Above 3.1% 16% +7.0 $100 $7K

Same series