How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noWhat the market expects
median 4.522%Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyAll outcomes
12| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.70% | 97% | +12.8 | $1K | $59K |
| Below 4.65% | 88% | +22.5 | $2K | $59K |
| Below 4.60% | 70% | +7.5 | $476 | $59K |
| Below 4.55% | 57% | +2.5 | $417 | $59K |
| Below 4.50% | 44% | -1.5 | $453 | $59K |
| Below 4.45% | 38% | -7.0 | $2K | $59K |
| Below 4.40% | 30% | -2.0 | $675 | $59K |
| Below 4.35% | 22% | +0.5 | $1K | $59K |
| Below 4.30% | 17% | +1.4 | $20 | $59K |
| Below 4.25% | 9% | — | $329 | $59K |
| Below 4.20% | 7% | — | $183 | $59K |
| Below 4.10% | 7% | +0.7 | $40 | $59K |
How it settles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.