P PolymarketEconomy & Fed

Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?

Settles Dec 31, 2026 (60d) All outcomes: How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

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chance of YES22% +0.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
4–60%
30d +375 pts · 7d +128 pts
24h volume
$1.3K
USDC traded
Open interest
$59.2K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

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We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

Other outcomes in this event

Below 4.70%97%$1.0K
Below 4.65%84%$1.8K
Below 4.60%70%$476
Below 4.55%54%$545
Below 4.50%52%$513
Below 4.45%38%$2.3K
Below 4.40%30%$675
Below 4.30%16%$20

How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.

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