P PolymarketEconomy & Fed

Fed Decision in March?

5 outcomesSettles Mar 18, 2027 (137d) Fed Watch

Embed these odds

Paste this into any web page or blog post. The odds refresh every minute.

Theme
Preview
Favorite46%No change
Favorite
46%
No change
Runner-up
44%
25 bps increase
Biggest 24h move+1 pts
3%
50+ bps increase
24h volume
$17K
$87K open interest

Current odds

one winner

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

5
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
No change 46% +1.0 $7K $17K
25 bps increase 44% — $3K $17K
25 bps decrease 5% — $2K $17K
50+ bps increase 3% +1.3 $3K $17K
50+ bps decrease 2% — $3K $17K

How it settles

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.