US gas prices on Election Day
50/50 line32%Above 4.20
Line nearest 50/50
32%
Market median
4.179
Biggest 24h move+22 pts
32%
24h volume
$4K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAbove 3.75
100%
Above 4.00
98%
-1
Above 4.15
74%
+7
Above 4.20
32%
+22
Above 4.25
2%
-2
Above 4.30
2%
-7
Above 4.50
1%
-2
Above 5.00
0%
Above 4.75
0%
What the market expects
median 4.179Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · dailyWhere the large orders went
7 days · ≥ $1K- Above 4.00YES $2K · NO $0 · 1 orders · biggest $2K
- Above 4.25YES $0 · NO $2K · 1 orders · biggest $2K
Recent large orders
| When | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.00 | YES | 99¢ | $2K | |
| Above 4.25 | NO | 64¢ | $2K |
All outcomes
9| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.75 | 100% | — | $25 | $38K |
| Above 4.00 | 98% | -1.0 | $279 | $33K |
| Above 4.15 | 74% | +7.0 | $88 | $320 |
| Above 4.20 | 32% | +22.0 | $1K | $893 |
| Above 4.25 | 2% | -2.0 | $691 | $27K |
| Above 4.30 | 2% | -7.0 | $11 | $411 |
| Above 4.50 | 1% | -2.0 | $995 | $16K |
| Above 5.00 | 0% | — | $467 | $11K |
| Above 4.75 | 0% | — | $46 | $6K |