What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 93%, implying a 93% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Mar 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Mar 01, 2027 (121d) All outcomes: Will Alaska crude oil production increase YoY in 2026?

chance of YES93% +9.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

57–94%

· 7d +16 pts

24h volume

6.7K

$1 contracts

Open interest

7.1K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$6K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 3:49 PM ET	YES	94¢	1,859	$2K
Oct 30, 11:38 AM ET	YES	85¢	4,738	$4K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.