Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31, 2026
50/50 line60%At least 195,000
Line nearest 50/50
60%
Market median
196587
Biggest 24h move+4 pts
10%
24h volume
$4K
Current odds
ladder — each rung is its own yes/noAt least 185,000
94%
At least 190,000
82%
At least 195,000
60%
At least 200,000
28%
-2
At least 205,000
10%
+4
At least 210,000
2%
+1
What the market expects
median 196587Chance of landing in each range, from the difference between neighbouring "above" rungs.
Odds over time
rungs nearest 50/50 · hourlyAll outcomes
6| Outcome | Odds | 24h change | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 185,000 | 94% | — | $1 | $3 |
| At least 190,000 | 82% | — | $100 | $100 |
| At least 195,000 | 60% | — | $484 | $429 |
| At least 200,000 | 28% | -1.5 | $2K | $2K |
| At least 205,000 | 10% | +4.0 | $595 | $923 |
| At least 210,000 | 2% | +1.0 | $174 | $298 |