What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 31, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 31, 2028 (457d) All outcomes: Recession in 2027? Fed Watch — inflation & jobs data

chance of YES18%

Price range (120d)

17–42%

30d -10 pts · 7d -14 pts

24h volume

5.8K

$1 contracts

Open interest

375.6K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

17¢ / 19¢

spread 2.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 18.0¢ · spread 2.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 30, 2:09 PM ET	NO	82¢	1,260	$1K
Oct 29, 11:57 PM ET	NO	83¢	2,673	$2K
Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET	NO	82¢	4,432	$4K
Oct 29, 7:17 PM ET	NO	81¢	5,164	$4K
Oct 28, 11:23 AM ET	NO	81¢	3,819	$3K
Oct 27, 6:53 PM ET	NO	81¢	1,659	$1K
Oct 27, 12:53 AM ET	YES	21¢	5,164	$1K
Oct 25, 7:50 PM ET	NO	80¢	3,828	$3K
Oct 22, 9:35 PM ET	NO	81¢	1,991	$2K
Oct 21, 3:10 PM ET	NO	81¢	1,282	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.