What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Starts

Closes Jan 31, 2027 (228d) 24h volume 15.7K Open interest 888.8K Event Recession this year?

12%

implied YES probability

Last 91 days · High 40% · Low 12% · 7d -27.8pp · 30d -31.6pp

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 12.5¢

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.