What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Settles Jan 31, 2027 (92d) All outcomes: Recession this year? Fed Watch — inflation & jobs data

chance of YES2% -0.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

2–8%

30d -40 pts · 7d -25 pts

24h volume

17.9K

$1 contracts

Open interest

896.1K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

2¢ / 3¢

spread 1.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 2.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 31, 1:00 AM ET	NO	98¢	6,030	$6K
Oct 29, 10:45 AM ET	NO	98¢	35,500	$35K
Oct 26, 11:02 PM ET	NO	98¢	3,063	$3K
Oct 26, 8:08 PM ET	NO	98¢	20,985	$21K
Oct 26, 10:16 AM ET	NO	98¢	14,606	$14K
Oct 25, 8:16 PM ET	NO	97¢	5,083	$5K
Oct 25, 8:15 PM ET	NO	97¢	5,383	$5K
Oct 21, 2:30 AM ET	NO	98¢	2,018	$2K
Oct 20, 5:17 PM ET	NO	97¢	14,202	$14K
Oct 17, 4:27 PM ET	NO	97¢	1,173	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.