US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

20 outcomesSettles Oct 31, 2026 (12d)

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Theme
Preview
50/50 line46%November 30
Line nearest 50/50
46%
November 30
Runner-up
100%
September 20
Biggest 24h move+6 pts
38%
December 31
24h volume
$787K
$24.6M open interest

Current odds

ladder — each rung is its own yes/no
September 30 100% +4
September 20 100% +3
October 7 100%
October 15 100% +3
October 12 100% +3
October 5 100%
October 9 100%
October 17 100% +4
October 16 100% +2
October 18 100% +3
October 28 88% +2

+ 6 more in the table below.

Odds over time

daily

Daily closing odds for the leading outcomes.

All outcomes

20
OutcomeOdds24h change24h volumeOpen interest
September 30 100% +3.6 $0 $1.2M
September 20 100% +3.0 $0 $1.2M
September 25 100% +0.7 $0 $1.2M
October 7 100% — $0 $1.2M
October 15 100% +2.6 $0 $1.2M
October 12 100% +2.5 $0 $1.2M
October 5 100% — $0 $1.2M
October 9 100% +0.9 $0 $1.2M
October 17 100% +4.0 $0 $1.2M
October 16 100% +1.9 $0 $1.2M
October 18 100% +2.5 $132K $1.2M
October 22 95% — $232K $1.2M
October 24 92% — $58K $1.2M
October 28 88% +2.0 $37K $1.2M
October 31 86% +4.0 $240K $1.2M
November 8 73% +4.5 $24K $1.2M
November 15 60% +3.5 $15K $1.2M
November 22 56% +2.5 $5K $1.2M
November 30 46% +2.5 $22K $1.2M
December 31 38% +5.5 $21K $1.2M

How it settles

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available

Odds are market prices, not forecasts or advice. Full terms on Polymarket.