What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 86%, implying a 86% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Feb 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?

Settles Feb 01, 2027 (113d) All outcomes: Blue wave in 2026? Polls & election odds

chance of YES86%

Price range (120d)

73–87%

30d +18 pts · 7d +1 pts

24h volume

29.6K

$1 contracts

Open interest

777.0K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

86¢ / 87¢

spread 1.0¢

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

top 5

Mid 86.5¢ · spread 1.0¢

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 8, 2:54 AM ET	YES	87¢	9,000	$8K
Oct 7, 8:00 PM ET	NO	14¢	31,665	$4K
Oct 6, 11:38 AM ET	YES	87¢	9,415	$8K
Oct 6, 10:19 AM ET	YES	86¢	7,205	$6K
Oct 5, 12:51 PM ET	NO	15¢	11,708	$2K
Oct 3, 2:29 PM ET	YES	87¢	39,411	$34K
Oct 3, 2:13 PM ET	YES	87¢	2,562	$2K
Oct 2, 11:02 PM ET	YES	86¢	4,379	$4K
Sep 29, 2:24 PM ET	YES	86¢	3,041	$3K
Sep 28, 1:04 AM ET	YES	86¢	7,961	$7K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.