kalshi
Elections
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?
James Talarico
46%
implied YES probability
+0.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 48% ·
Low 39%
· 7d +4.5pp
· 30d +9.5pp
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market is currently pricing in a 46% chance that Democrats will win the Senate race in Texas. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the state's historical lean towards Republican candidates and recent election results. The current price of 0.47 suggests that while there are some indications of Democratic momentum, Republicans still maintain a strong advantage in the state. Any developments that could impact this outcome, such as shifts in voter sentiment or changes in the political landscape, would likely influence the market's assessment and potentially drive the YES price up or down. The market will close on November 3rd at 15:00:00Z, providing a final snapshot of the collective wisdom before the election results are known.
Generated Jul 29, 2026
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.0¢ | 4811 | 47.0¢ | 24783 | |
| 45.0¢ | 27292 | 48.0¢ | 7152 | |
| 44.0¢ | 253821 | 49.0¢ | 14094 | |
| 43.0¢ | 8000 | 50.0¢ | 251181 | |
| 42.0¢ | 24664 | 51.0¢ | 12050 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 46.5¢
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.