kalshi
Elections
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?
Ken Paxton
54%
implied YES probability
-1.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 62% ·
Low 52%
· 7d -3.5pp
· 30d -6.8pp
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market for the Texas Senate race is currently indicating a 55% probability that Republicans will win, with a YES price of 0.55. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the historical lean of the state towards Republican candidates and the current political climate. The market is not reflecting any significant external factors that would suggest a drastic shift in the likelihood of a Republican victory. If new information emerges about the Democratic candidate's campaign or voter sentiment, it could potentially drive the price down. Conversely, if Republicans gain momentum or the Democratic candidate faces setbacks, the YES price may increase.
Generated Jul 29, 2026
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.0¢ | 30638 | 54.0¢ | 5877 | |
| 52.0¢ | 6152 | 55.0¢ | 13353 | |
| 51.0¢ | 22445 | 56.0¢ | 254122 | |
| 50.0¢ | 252560 | 57.0¢ | 7000 | |
| 49.0¢ | 40877 | 58.0¢ | 33704 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 53.5¢
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.